AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 23
ADE to win, 79% chance
ADE 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 22
HIT Actual margin 22 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 148 | 94% | 89% | 78% | 63% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 102 | 87 to 118 | 63 to 142 | 92% | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 138 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 126 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 88 | 73 to 102 | 50 to 125 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 87 | 72 to 101 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 60% | 42% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 56% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 53% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | R | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 71 | 58 to 85 | 37 to 106 | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 34 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 67 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 63 | 50 to 76 | 30 to 96 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 93 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| James Borlase | FB | 46 | 34 to 58 | 16 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 96 | 80 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 59% | 41% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | RR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 54% | 34% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Tim English | RK | 86 | 72 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 78% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 69 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 30 to 96 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 27 to 92 | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 91 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 91 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 56 | 44 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 81 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 17 to 78 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 16 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 46 | 34 to 58 | 16 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 43 | 31 to 55 | 14 to 73 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Will Lewis | INT | 41 | 30 to 53 | 12 to 70 | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 37 | 25 to 48 | 8 to 65 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |