AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 23
ADE to win, 79% chance
ADE 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 22
HIT Actual margin 22 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 78% | 58% | 32% | 18% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 88% | 67% | 38% | 17% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 80% | 62% | 34% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 73% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 78% | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 72% | 38% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 59% | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 34% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 34% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.0 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 80% | 59% | 38% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 78% | 49% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 59% | 32% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Lewis | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 72% | 38% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | RR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 50% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 58% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 38% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 44% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 58% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 34% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 19% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |