AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 23
ADE to win, 79% chance
ADE 79%21% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 22
HIT Actual margin 22 · 1.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | INT | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.7 to 11.5 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 64% | 57% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.2 | 91% | 77% | 61% | 41% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 79% | 64% | 51% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 79% | 63% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.9 to 7.7 | 79% | 63% | 46% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 77% | 61% | 43% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.8 | 73% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.7 | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Freijah | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 85% | 68% | 55% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 79% | 62% | 47% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 61% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.4 to 6.5 | 64% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 52% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 45% | 28% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 47% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Budarick | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 35% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Gardner | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 30% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 30% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |