HBin HUMAN BEHAVIOUR INSIGHTS
Australian FootballAFL2026 Qualifying & Elimination FinalsFRE v HAW
AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM

Fremantle v Hawthorn

Thu 3 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)

FINAL MISS
OUR TIP

FRE by 4

FRE to win, 56% chance

FRE 56%44% HAW
BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

HAW by 32

MISS Actual margin 32 · 36.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin 18 Jun 2026

Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Fremantle

NO LINEUP
PLAYER POS DISPOSALSGOALSMARKSTACKLESFANTASY
Caleb Serong RR 24.4 / inside our 90% range: 20.00.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.05.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.092 / inside our 90% range: 62
Andrew Brayshaw C 24.3 / inside our 90% range: 30.00.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.03.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.06.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.092 / inside our 90% range: 114
Jordan Clark BPL 22.3 / outside our 90% range: 38.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.04.7 / outside our 90% range: 11.02.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.080 / outside our 90% range: 131
Murphy Reid INT 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 24.00.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.03.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.074 / inside our 50% range: 69
Shai Bolton CHF 20.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.00.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.03.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.077 / inside our 90% range: 62
Hayden Young R 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.00.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.03.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.074 / inside our 50% range: 66
Luke Ryan CHB 19.5 / inside our 90% range: 23.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.06.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.01.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.074 / outside our 90% range: 110
Matthew Johnson WL 19.5 / inside our 90% range: 14.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.03.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.072 / inside our 50% range: 62
Karl Worner HBFL 18.2 / inside our 90% range: 22.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.06.1 / inside our 50% range: 6.02.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.076 / inside our 90% range: 91
Neil Erasmus WR 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 24.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.04.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.02.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.067 / inside our 90% range: 87
Luke Jackson RK 17.2 / inside our 90% range: 22.00.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.4 / outside our 90% range: 6.05.4 / outside our 90% range: 1.099 / inside our 50% range: 105
Nathan O'Driscoll INT 14.1 / inside our 90% range: 18.00.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.02.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.058 / inside our 50% range: 65
Heath Chapman HBFR 13.5 / outside our 90% range: 22.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.04.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.02.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.058 / inside our 90% range: 83
Sam Switkowski HFFR 12.8 / inside our 50% range: 15.00.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.03.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.055 / inside our 50% range: 67
Brandon Walker INT 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.050 / inside our 50% range: 39
Michael Frederick HFFL 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.03.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.02.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.058 / inside our 50% range: 49
Josh Treacy FF 11.4 / outside our 90% range: 4.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.05.7 / outside our 90% range: 0.01.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.070 / outside our 90% range: 18
Oscar McDonald BPR 11.4 / inside our 90% range: 17.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.04.7 / outside our 90% range: 10.01.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.054 / inside our 90% range: 77
Isaiah Dudley INT 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 14.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.8 / outside our 90% range: 5.02.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.049 / inside our 90% range: 66
Patrick Voss FPR 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 11.01.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.03.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.02.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.054 / inside our 90% range: 41
Jye Amiss FPL 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.02.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.04.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.01.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.057 / inside our 90% range: 39
Alex Pearce FB 8.3 / outside our 90% range: 18.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.01.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.038 / inside our 50% range: 49
Mason Cox INT 7.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.00.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.01.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.048 / inside our 90% range: 25

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP
PLAYER POS DISPOSALSGOALSMARKSTACKLESFANTASY
Jai Newcombe RR 24.8 / inside our 50% range: 21.00.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.04.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.086 / inside our 50% range: 74
Jarman Impey WL 23.3 / outside our 90% range: 11.00.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.05.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.01.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.088 / outside our 90% range: 47
Josh Ward INT 22.6 / outside our 90% range: 10.00.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.04.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.082 / outside our 90% range: 40
Cam Mackenzie R 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 20.00.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.04.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.075 / inside our 90% range: 58
Will Day C 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 24.00.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.04.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.077 / inside our 50% range: 82
Connor Macdonald HFFR 19.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.00.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.03.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.03.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.079 / inside our 90% range: 54
James Sicily BPL 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 26.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.05.5 / outside our 90% range: 10.01.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.073 / inside our 90% range: 103
Massimo D'Ambrosio WR 18.9 / inside our 90% range: 24.00.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.073 / inside our 90% range: 94
Blake Hardwick BPR 18.4 / inside our 90% range: 13.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.05.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.02.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.076 / inside our 90% range: 56
Josh Battle HBFR 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.04.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.01.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.070 / inside our 50% range: 59
Karl Amon INT 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 17.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.01.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.068 / inside our 50% range: 68
Dylan Moore HFFL 17.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.03.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.02.5 / outside our 90% range: 8.073 / inside our 90% range: 97
Harry Morrison INT 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 15.00.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.03.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.02.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.069 / inside our 50% range: 68
Jack Ginnivan INT 16.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.00.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.03.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.02.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.067 / inside our 50% range: 74
Josh Weddle HBFL 13.9 / inside our 50% range: 16.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.04.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.02.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.059 / inside our 90% range: 76
Bailey Macdonald CHB 12.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.050 / inside our 50% range: 38
Lloyd Meek RK 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.03.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.080 / inside our 90% range: 46
Nick Watson FPL 12.0 / outside our 90% range: 19.02.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.01.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.059 / inside our 90% range: 73
Mitch Lewis FF 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.01.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.04.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.01.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.061 / inside our 50% range: 60
Max Beattie INT 10.9 / outside our 90% range: 2.00.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.047 / inside our 90% range: 18
Jack Gunston FPR 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.02.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.05.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.01.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.064 / inside our 90% range: 39
Mabior Chol CHF 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.01.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.03.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.058 / inside our 90% range: 34
Tom Barrass FB 8.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.01.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.036 / inside our 50% range: 36