AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 3 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 56% chance
FRE 56%44% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 36.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | RR | 24.4 | 20.7 to 28.2 | 15.0 to 33.9 | 95% | 82% | 48% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.2 to 31.4 | 90% | 65% | 32% | 9% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 38.0 |
| Murphy Reid | INT | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.1 to 29.7 | 87% | 57% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.5 to 28.8 | 84% | 50% | 19% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.2 to 28.5 | 82% | 47% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 10.9 to 28.0 | 81% | 45% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.0 to 28.1 | 81% | 45% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 9.9 to 26.5 | 76% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.8 | 74% | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.2 | 13.9 to 20.4 | 9.1 to 25.2 | 68% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.7 to 21.5 | 44% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.2 to 20.7 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.7 to 19.9 | 31% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.5 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.6 | 2.5 to 14.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.4 | 5.2 to 9.6 | 1.8 to 12.9 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.5 | 15.2 to 34.3 | 96% | 83% | 49% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 23.3 | 19.6 to 27.0 | 14.0 to 32.6 | 93% | 72% | 37% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.2 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 34% | 11% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 20.0 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.3 to 28.6 | 83% | 48% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Will Day | C | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 47% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.0 to 28.1 | 81% | 45% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.5 | 78% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.3 | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.1 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.1 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.1 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.1 | 8.9 to 25.0 | 67% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 8.9 to 24.9 | 67% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 16.8 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 8.8 to 24.8 | 66% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFL | 13.9 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.5 to 21.2 | 39% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.6 to 19.7 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.5 | 30% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.3 to 17.5 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |