AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 3 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 56% chance
FRE 56%44% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 36.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 99 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 137 | 89% | 78% | 65% | 50% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 54% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 54% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 41 to 111 | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Murphy Reid | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Hayden Young | R | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 90 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 90 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 19 to 81 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 19 to 80 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 18 to 79 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 38 | 26 to 49 | 9 to 66 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey | WL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 80% | 64% | 44% | 29% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 86 | 71 to 100 | 49 to 123 | 77% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 52% | 34% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 40 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 47% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 66% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Will Day | C | 77 | 63 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 61% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 56% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 70 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 69 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 68 | 54 to 81 | 34 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 31 to 97 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 19 to 81 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 17 to 77 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 36 | 25 to 48 | 8 to 64 | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |