AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 3 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 56% chance
FRE 56%44% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 36.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.4 | 90% | 68% | 43% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 78% | 58% | 33% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 73% | 50% | 21% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 65% | 32% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 34% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.4 | 1.6 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 90% | 72% | 44% | 25% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.4 | 90% | 68% | 43% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 71% | 38% | 19% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 35% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 59% | 30% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 59% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 38% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 34% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 34% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |