AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu 3 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 4
FRE to win, 56% chance
FRE 56%44% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 32
MISS Actual margin 32 · 36.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 2.2 to 10.5 | 93% | 85% | 69% | 60% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.6 to 9.3 | 91% | 77% | 61% | 41% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.6 to 9.3 | 91% | 77% | 61% | 41% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 64% | 51% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 61% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 61% | 41% | 28% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 52% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 35% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.9 to 7.8 | 64% | 52% | 40% | 26% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 77% | 60% | 41% | 28% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Day | C | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 64% | 47% | 35% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 68% | 51% | 35% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 23% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 41% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 40% | 23% | 10% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 36% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 31% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |