AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · MCG
Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri 4 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 59% chance
GEE 59%41% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 26.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.1 | 26.0 to 34.3 | 19.7 to 40.6 | 98% | 94% | 80% | 51% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 26.2 | 22.3 to 30.0 | 16.4 to 35.9 | 98% | 86% | 60% | 26% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.3 to 30.1 | 88% | 60% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.7 to 29.1 | 87% | 53% | 20% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 47% | 18% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.0 to 28.1 | 81% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 18.4 | 15.0 to 21.7 | 10.0 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.2 | 9.7 to 26.1 | 72% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.3 | 69% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.2 | 7.5 to 22.8 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.1 to 22.2 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.7 to 21.4 | 43% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.5 to 21.2 | 39% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.3 to 20.9 | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.8 to 20.0 | 33% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 19.0 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 18.0 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.5 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.9 | 3.3 to 15.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.7 | 1.9 to 13.1 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 28.8 | 24.8 to 32.9 | 18.6 to 39.0 | 98% | 92% | 75% | 42% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 26.3 | 22.4 to 30.2 | 16.6 to 36.1 | 98% | 86% | 61% | 27% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.4 | 15.2 to 34.2 | 95% | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 23.1 | 19.4 to 26.8 | 13.9 to 32.3 | 93% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 22.4 | 18.8 to 26.0 | 13.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 12.9 to 30.9 | 89% | 63% | 30% | 7% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.7 to 27.7 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.6 to 27.5 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.5 | 76% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.2 to 23.8 | 60% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.1 to 23.7 | 58% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.0 to 21.9 | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.7 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Wade Derksen | HBFR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.7 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.6 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.2 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.7 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | HFFR | 10.5 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |