AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · MCG
Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri 4 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 59% chance
GEE 59%41% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 26.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 111 | 95 to 128 | 71 to 152 | 96% | 91% | 83% | 69% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 58% | 40% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 55 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 86 | 71 to 100 | 49 to 122 | 77% | 59% | 40% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 81 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 47% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 41 to 112 | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 57% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 31 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 69 | 55 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 65 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 37% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 60 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 27 to 92 | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 58 | 45 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 53 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 51 | 38 to 63 | 20 to 82 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 87 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 77 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 40 | 29 to 52 | 12 to 69 | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 92% | 84% | 70% | 55% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 70% | 54% | 35% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| George Hewett | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 76% | 58% | 39% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 49% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 70 | 57 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 46% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 45% | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 36% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 63 | 50 to 76 | 30 to 96 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 62 | 48 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 30% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Brodie Kemp | HFFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 58 | 45 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Wade Derksen | HBFR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 50 | 37 to 62 | 19 to 80 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |