AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · MCG
Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri 4 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 59% chance
GEE 59%41% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 26.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 88% | 67% | 38% | 17% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 78% | 58% | 27% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 67% | 34% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 64% | 38% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 59% | 32% | 17% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 74% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 46% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 38% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Kemp | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 70% | 43% | 18% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 72% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 72% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 34% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 59% | 32% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |