AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · MCG
Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri 4 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 59% chance
GEE 59%41% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 26.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.1 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 111 / inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 26.2 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 95 / outside our 90% range: 55 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 21.2 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 19.9 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 19.6 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 81 / outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 18.4 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 17.9 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 17.2 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.7 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / outside our 90% range: 31 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 13.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 51 / outside our 90% range: 87 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 9.7 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / outside our 90% range: 77 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 9.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.4 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 7.5 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 40 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | RR | 28.8 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 26.3 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.7 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| George Hewett | INT | 23.1 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 22.4 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 21.9 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 19.2 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 18.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 16.0 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 15.9 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Wade Derksen | HBFR | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 12.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Brodie Kemp | HFFR | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 9.9 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 50 / outside our 90% range: 17 |