AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · MCG
Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri 4 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 59% chance
GEE 59%41% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 26.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 86% | 77% | 61% | 47% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 79% | 64% | 51% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 69% | 52% | 38% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 64% | 51% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 47% | 32% | 16% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 37% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 33% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 18% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 91% | 77% | 61% | 41% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 69% | 57% | 40% | 28% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 64% | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 69% | 52% | 37% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | BPR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 51% | 35% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 61% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 47% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 41% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 41% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 35% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 30% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Wade Derksen | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |