AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
SYD 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
MISS Actual margin 53 · 55.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 31.0 | 26.8 to 35.3 | 20.5 to 41.6 | 98% | 95% | 84% | 57% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 74% | 39% | 11% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.8 to 29.3 | 86% | 55% | 18% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.1 to 28.2 | 82% | 46% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.2 to 26.9 | 77% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.3 to 25.5 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.2 to 25.4 | 70% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.1 to 25.3 | 68% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.0 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.3 to 24.0 | 61% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.0 to 23.5 | 58% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | R | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.2 to 22.3 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 6.9 to 21.8 | 48% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 38% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.5 | 30% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.7 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.3 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.4 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.2 | 24.2 to 32.2 | 18.1 to 38.3 | 97% | 91% | 72% | 39% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.3 | 17.4 to 37.3 | 97% | 89% | 66% | 32% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.0 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 81% | 47% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.5 to 30.3 | 89% | 62% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.5 to 30.3 | 89% | 62% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 19.4 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 10.9 to 28.0 | 81% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.2 to 26.9 | 77% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 9.9 to 26.4 | 75% | 35% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 9.9 to 26.5 | 75% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.1 to 25.2 | 68% | 29% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.6 | 7.8 to 23.2 | 55% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.7 to 19.8 | 30% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.8 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.6 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 9.5 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.7 | 1.9 to 13.1 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |