AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
SYD 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
MISS Actual margin 53 · 55.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 109 | 93 to 125 | 69 to 149 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 66% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 122 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 87% | 74% | 58% | 39% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 77% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 105 | 48% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 42% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 36% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Caiden Cleary | R | 62 | 49 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 100 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 20 to 82 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 18 to 80 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 18 to 78 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 17 to 78 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 17 to 77 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 42 | 30 to 54 | 13 to 71 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 104 | 89 to 120 | 65 to 144 | 93% | 86% | 75% | 58% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 87% | 74% | 58% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 85% | 71% | 56% | 36% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 90 | 75 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 78% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 56% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 73 | 59 to 86 | 38 to 107 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 52% | 34% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 49% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 105 | 48% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 23% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 27 to 92 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 58 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 56 | 44 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 52 | 39 to 64 | 21 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 73 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |