AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
SYD 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
MISS Actual margin 53 · 55.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.5 | 90% | 69% | 44% | 22% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 88% | 66% | 37% | 17% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 66% | 34% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 67% | 27% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 34% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 34% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 88% | 63% | 34% | 16% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 81% | 62% | 34% | 16% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 80% | 59% | 32% | 14% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 77% | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 67% | 38% | 19% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 58% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 58% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 25% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 44% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 32% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |