AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
SYD 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
MISS Actual margin 53 · 55.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 34% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 51% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 58% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 22% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 49% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 35% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 35% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 23% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 23% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.6 to 10.6 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 43% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.9 | 79% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.2 | 75% | 64% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.8 to 8.8 | 69% | 55% | 44% | 27% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.4 | 69% | 51% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 65% | 49% | 34% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 69% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 51% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.6 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 35% | 24% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.3 | 51% | 37% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.2 | 49% | 32% | 21% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 19% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 49% | 27% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |