AFL · QUALIFYING & ELIMINATION FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
SYD 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 53
MISS Actual margin 53 · 55.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | RR | 6.7 | 4.8 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 93% | 86% | 77% | 62% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 69% | 51% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.6 to 7.1 | 64% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.6 to 7.0 | 62% | 43% | 29% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.8 | 69% | 51% | 35% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 61% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.7 | 52% | 32% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 26% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 23% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 41% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 26% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.6 to 11.3 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 64% | 56% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 61% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 47% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 36% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |