AFL · SEMI FINALS · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
BRI 73%27% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 35.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.2 | 18.0 to 38.2 | 98% | 94% | 73% | 40% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 27.6 | 23.5 to 31.6 | 17.5 to 37.6 | 98% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 24.2 | 20.4 to 28.0 | 14.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 41% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.5 | 18.8 to 26.2 | 13.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 68% | 32% | 9% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.4 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 90% | 64% | 25% | 6% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 19.8 | 16.3 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.3 | 82% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 18.8 | 15.4 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 78% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.1 | 10.4 to 27.1 | 78% | 38% | 11% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 18.6 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 77% | 37% | 11% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 71% | 34% | 9% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.1 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.3 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.9 to 16.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 9.3 | 6.9 to 11.7 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 9.1 | 6.8 to 11.5 | 3.3 to 15.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.9 | 2.3 to 13.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.6 | 16.8 to 36.5 | 98% | 85% | 61% | 27% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 26.4 | 22.4 to 30.3 | 16.5 to 36.2 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.0 | 14.0 to 32.5 | 93% | 71% | 34% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 21.5 | 17.9 to 25.1 | 12.6 to 30.4 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 86% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.4 to 26.9 | 77% | 37% | 11% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 16.5 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.7 to 24.4 | 60% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 62% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 61% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 60% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.1 to 20.0 | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.8 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.5 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.4 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |