AFL · SEMI FINALS · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
BRI 73%27% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 35.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 102 | 86 to 117 | 63 to 141 | 92% | 83% | 70% | 55% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 89% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 81% | 67% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 29% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 37 to 106 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 91 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 53 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 49 | 37 to 62 | 19 to 80 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 48 | 36 to 61 | 18 to 79 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 42 | 30 to 54 | 13 to 71 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 143 | 93% | 85% | 72% | 59% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 103 | 87 to 118 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 67% | 48% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Berry | R | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 74% | 56% | 36% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 47% | 30% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 65 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 37% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 36% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 63 | 50 to 76 | 30 to 96 | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 94 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 27 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 90 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 18 to 79 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| James Borlase | FB | 38 | 27 to 50 | 10 to 67 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |