AFL · SEMI FINALS · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
BRI 73%27% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 35.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 78% | 58% | 32% | 18% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 77% | 58% | 25% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 73% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 66% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 68% | 43% | 20% | 10% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 73% | 38% | 18% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 34% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 78% | 58% | 32% | 18% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 83% | 63% | 34% | 16% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 88% | 67% | 38% | 17% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 78% | 49% | 21% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 68% | 43% | 20% | 10% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 50% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 36% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |