AFL · SEMI FINALS · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
BRI 73%27% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 35.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 11.1 | 85% | 78% | 65% | 50% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.3 | 79% | 66% | 53% | 43% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.9 | 79% | 67% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 33% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 71% | 63% | 49% | 33% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.8 | 69% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 69% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.3 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 69% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 69% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.0 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 51% | 37% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 52% | 35% | 24% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.2 | 49% | 33% | 21% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 51% | 37% | 24% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 51% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 44% | 27% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.9 | 79% | 65% | 51% | 35% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.4 | 71% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 69% | 54% | 37% | 25% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 69% | 52% | 37% | 25% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 64% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 69% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.6 | 58% | 42% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 64% | 49% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.2 | 50% | 33% | 21% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.2 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 52% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Berry | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |