AFL · SEMI FINALS · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 17
BRI to win, 73% chance
BRI 73%27% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 35.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.1 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 27.6 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 96 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 24.2 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.5 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.8 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 19.8 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 18.8 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 18.7 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 18.6 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 9.1 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 7.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 26.6 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 104 / inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 26.4 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFL | 23.3 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Berry | R | 21.5 / outside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 21.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 19.2 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 18.7 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 16.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 16.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Daniel Curtin | WR | 15.8 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 14.9 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ben Keays | HFFL | 13.0 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Callum Ah Chee | FPR | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPL | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| James Borlase | FB | 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 38 / inside our 90% range: 15 |