AFL · SEMI FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 1
GEE to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 14.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.1 | 21.2 to 29.0 | 15.5 to 34.7 | 96% | 79% | 50% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.5 | 15.1 to 34.1 | 95% | 79% | 44% | 12% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.2 | 14.9 to 33.8 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.6 | 13.0 to 30.9 | 90% | 65% | 27% | 7% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 19.8 | 16.3 to 23.2 | 11.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 36% | 11% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.8 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 73% | 35% | 10% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 60% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.3 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.6 to 19.1 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.0 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.6 | 4.0 to 16.3 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.9 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.0 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.9 to 14.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.9 | 2.3 to 13.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.3 | 26.1 to 34.6 | 19.8 to 40.8 | 99% | 96% | 85% | 54% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.5 | 15.1 to 34.1 | 95% | 79% | 44% | 12% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.6 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 20.6 | 17.1 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 53% | 20% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 20.2 | 16.7 to 23.7 | 11.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 81% | 45% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 11.0 to 27.9 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.2 | 79% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.5 to 25.5 | 70% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.1 to 20.0 | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.0 | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.7 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.6 to 17.4 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.9 to 16.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.0 | 3.6 to 15.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.9 | 2.3 to 13.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |