AFL · SEMI FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 1
GEE to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 14.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 91% | 81% | 68% | 53% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 19% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 120 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 115 | 66% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 76 | 62 to 90 | 41 to 112 | 58% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 58% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 69 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 63 | 49 to 76 | 30 to 96 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 58 | 45 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 88 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 54 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 54 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 16 to 76 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 41 | 30 to 53 | 12 to 70 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 66% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 117 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 79% | 61% | 42% | 28% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 86 | 72 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 77% | 59% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 81 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 64% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 58% | 40% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 58% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 72 | 58 to 85 | 37 to 106 | 51% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 67 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 65 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 40% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 90 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 54 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 106 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 52 | 39 to 64 | 21 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 20 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 14 to 72 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 72 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |