AFL · SEMI FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 1
GEE to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 14.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 84% | 59% | 38% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 77% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 35% | 18% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 51% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 38% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 49% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 35% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 80% | 59% | 34% | 15% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 73% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 64% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 58% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 74% | 38% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 67% | 34% | 16% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 50% | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 38% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 34% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 44% | 17% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |