AFL · SEMI FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 1
GEE to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 14.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.5 | 84% | 69% | 59% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.3 | 79% | 67% | 54% | 43% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.3 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.4 | 71% | 56% | 42% | 27% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 71% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.8 | 69% | 52% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.6 | 61% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 58% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 43% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 51% | 32% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 43% | 24% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 19% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 19% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 79% | 69% | 52% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.4 | 73% | 58% | 44% | 30% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.7 | 64% | 49% | 34% | 20% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.7 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.5 | 65% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 69% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 51% | 35% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 57% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.2 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 42% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 49% | 29% | 20% | 10% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 36% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 35% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 21% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |