AFL · SEMI FINALS · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
GEE by 1
GEE to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 14.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.9 to 10.0 | 91% | 79% | 64% | 56% | 41% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.5 to 9.1 | 86% | 77% | 61% | 41% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 79% | 62% | 47% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 68% | 51% | 35% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 51% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 48% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 61% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 41% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 30% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 8.9 | 85% | 69% | 56% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 79% | 61% | 43% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 64% | 47% | 35% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.6 to 7.0 | 63% | 47% | 30% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.7 | 41% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.7 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Holmes | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 47% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 30% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Henry | BPR | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |