AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · MCG
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
HAW 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 24.9 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 22.3 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 84 / outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.1 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Will Day | C | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 19.6 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 19.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 18.9 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 18.7 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 18.1 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 17.0 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 14.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 13.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFL | 12.5 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 51 / outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 10.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 38 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.0 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 26.7 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 24.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.6 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 95 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 19.2 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 18.6 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 18.6 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 17.8 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 71 / outside our 90% range: 126 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 17.6 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.2 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 13.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.6 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 9.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 8.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 34 |