AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · MCG
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
HAW 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.7 | 15.4 to 34.4 | 96% | 83% | 51% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 22.3 | 18.6 to 25.9 | 13.2 to 31.3 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 63% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Will Day | C | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.5 | 87% | 58% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 20.0 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.6 | 83% | 48% | 17% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 46% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.0 to 28.1 | 81% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.8 to 27.7 | 79% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.3 | 81% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.3 to 27.0 | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 9.9 to 26.4 | 74% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.1 to 25.1 | 67% | 29% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.0 to 25.0 | 68% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.8 | 8.7 to 24.5 | 61% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.7 | 47% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.3 to 20.8 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.8 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.0 | 24.0 to 32.0 | 18.0 to 38.1 | 98% | 90% | 71% | 38% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 26.7 | 22.7 to 30.6 | 16.8 to 36.5 | 98% | 87% | 61% | 28% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.1 to 34.0 | 95% | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 60% | 27% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 90% | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.7 to 27.6 | 78% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 79% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.9 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.1 | 9.6 to 26.0 | 69% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.4 to 25.7 | 73% | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 16.2 | 13.0 to 19.3 | 8.3 to 24.0 | 62% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.8 to 21.6 | 45% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.1 to 20.5 | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.6 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.4 | 7.9 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.1 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.8 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.3 | 2.3 to 13.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |