AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · MCG
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
HAW 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 61% | 43% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Josh Ward | R | 83 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 54% | 36% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Will Day | C | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 50% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 79 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 115 | 65% | 49% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 78 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 64% | 47% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 78 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 58% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 58% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 106 | 51% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 37 to 106 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 36% | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFL | 51 | 38 to 63 | 20 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 12 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 15 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 38 | 26 to 49 | 9 to 66 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 103 | 88 to 119 | 64 to 143 | 93% | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 45% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 75 | 60 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 57% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 52% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 126 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 36% | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 97 | 35% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 27 to 92 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 90 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 55 | 43 to 68 | 24 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 55 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 20 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 18 to 79 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 42 | 30 to 54 | 13 to 71 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |