AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · MCG
Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat 19 Sep 2026, 5:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 2
BRI to win, 53% chance
HAW 47%53% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 9
HIT Actual margin 9 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.7 | 1.8 to 3.6 | 0.4 to 4.9 | 90% | 72% | 44% | 27% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.1 to 4.2 | 88% | 63% | 38% | 20% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 72% | 44% | 19% | 10% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 59% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 67% | 34% | 16% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 32% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Karl Amon | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.4 | 90% | 69% | 43% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 88% | 67% | 38% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 78% | 49% | 22% | 11% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 59% | 32% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 59% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 78% | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 69% | 35% | 17% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 44% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 49% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 34% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |