AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 70% chance
SYD 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 27.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 32.1 | 27.8 to 36.4 | 21.4 to 42.8 | 99% | 96% | 86% | 64% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 36.0 |
| Justin McInerney | HBFR | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 88% | 60% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.7 to 29.1 | 87% | 52% | 20% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.5 to 27.3 | 81% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 18.8 | 15.4 to 22.1 | 10.4 to 27.1 | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.8 to 26.3 | 73% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.3 to 25.5 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 8.9 to 24.9 | 68% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.3 | 8.3 to 24.0 | 62% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.1 to 23.6 | 58% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | R | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.7 to 23.0 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.8 to 21.5 | 44% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 38% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.3 to 20.8 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.2 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.5 | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Lewis Melican | INT | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.8 | 2.6 to 14.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Hayden McLean | HFFR | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.8 | 2.6 to 14.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.8 | 21.0 to 28.6 | 15.3 to 34.3 | 96% | 83% | 51% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 39% | 11% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.2 | 14.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 38% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 22.5 | 18.8 to 26.1 | 13.4 to 31.5 | 90% | 65% | 31% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 88% | 60% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.2 | 81% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 18.7 | 15.3 to 22.0 | 10.3 to 27.0 | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.1 | 10.4 to 27.1 | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.6 to 25.9 | 69% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.4 to 25.6 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 17.4 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.3 to 25.4 | 71% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.3 | 55% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.2 to 22.2 | 47% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.5 to 21.1 | 38% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.8 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.5 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.2 to 15.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.1 | 2.1 to 13.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.3 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.8 to 12.9 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |