AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 70% chance
SYD 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 27.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 90% | 80% | 67% | 51% | inside our 90% range: 137 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 64% | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Justin McInerney | HBFR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 47% | 27% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 60% | 40% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 54% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 70 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Braeden Campbell | R | 68 | 54 to 81 | 34 to 102 | 42% | 25% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 67 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 37% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 62 | 48 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 55 | 42 to 67 | 23 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Hayden McLean | HFFR | 54 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 49 | 36 to 61 | 18 to 79 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Lewis Melican | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 18 to 79 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 47 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 78 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 39 | 28 to 51 | 11 to 68 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 99 | 84 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 68% | 51% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 92 | 76 to 107 | 54 to 129 | 83% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 78% | 62% | 43% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 59% | 40% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 37 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 50% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 61% | 41% | 27% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 56% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 117 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 67 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 101 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 67 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 28 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 22 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 84 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 51 | 38 to 63 | 20 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 78 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 38 | 26 to 49 | 10 to 66 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |