AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 70% chance
SYD 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 27.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.4 | 90% | 69% | 43% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 78% | 58% | 32% | 18% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 80% | 57% | 25% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden McLean | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 76% | 43% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 70% | 38% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 50% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | R | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 50% | 18% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Justin McInerney | HBFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 44% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 35% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 80% | 59% | 34% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 72% | 44% | 20% | 11% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 69% | 43% | 19% | 10% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 50% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 59% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 58% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |