AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 70% chance
SYD 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 27.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 8.1 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.8 | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.8 | 57% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Melican | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.2 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Justin McInerney | HBFR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.9 | 41% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 48% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 52% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden McLean | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 23% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 21% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 79% | 68% | 52% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.5 | 73% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.5 | 78% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 56% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 48% | 29% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 39% | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 48% | 27% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 37% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 33% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |