AFL · PRELIMINARY FINALS · SCG
Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri 18 Sep 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 70% chance
SYD 70%30% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 27.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | RR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.0 | 94% | 85% | 77% | 62% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 40% | 26% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 61% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.8 | 69% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.0 | 57% | 37% | 22% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 57% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 61% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Justin McInerney | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 22% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 35% | 19% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 41% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Hanily | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden McLean | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 33% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Kyle | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 24% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.8 to 9.7 | 91% | 79% | 63% | 51% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 83% | 67% | 52% | 39% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 81% | 64% | 51% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.3 | 64% | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.2 to 6.0 | 51% | 35% | 19% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 57% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.2 to 6.0 | 56% | 35% | 22% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |