AFL · GRAND FINAL · MCG
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Sat 26 Sep 2026, 2:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
FRE 40%60% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.0 | 15.6 to 34.7 | 96% | 84% | 53% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.2 | 14.2 to 32.7 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.2 | 13.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 65% | 32% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 21.3 | 17.7 to 24.8 | 12.4 to 30.1 | 89% | 62% | 24% | 6% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 21.2 | 17.6 to 24.7 | 12.3 to 30.0 | 89% | 61% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 10.9 to 27.9 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Luke Ryan | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.8 | 10.1 to 26.7 | 76% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 17.5 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.4 to 25.6 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.5 | 9.2 to 25.3 | 69% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.0 to 25.0 | 67% | 28% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.5 to 22.7 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.3 to 22.4 | 51% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Judd McVee | BPR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 21.0 | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | CHB | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.8 | 2.6 to 14.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.1 | 2.1 to 13.5 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.1 | 1.5 to 12.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 27.2 | 23.2 to 31.1 | 17.3 to 37.1 | 97% | 88% | 65% | 30% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 26.3 | 22.4 to 30.2 | 16.5 to 36.1 | 98% | 86% | 61% | 26% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 23.7 | 20.0 to 27.4 | 14.4 to 33.0 | 94% | 73% | 39% | 11% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 89% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.1 to 29.7 | 87% | 59% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 17.9 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.7 to 26.1 | 71% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.3 to 25.4 | 71% | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.3 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 8.9 to 24.9 | 67% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.7 to 24.6 | 62% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.5 to 22.7 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 6.9 to 21.7 | 48% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.2 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.1 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.8 | 2.6 to 14.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.5 | 2.4 to 14.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.4 | 1.7 to 12.7 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |