AFL · GRAND FINAL · MCG
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Sat 26 Sep 2026, 2:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
FRE 40%60% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 100 | 84 to 115 | 61 to 138 | 91% | 80% | 68% | 52% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 84% | 72% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 68% | 48% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 83 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 41 to 111 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 120 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 54% | 33% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 38 to 107 | 52% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Luke Ryan | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 70 | 57 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 47% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 99 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 89 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 53 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 84 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Oscar McDonald | CHB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 84 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Judd McVee | BPR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 84 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 15 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 39 | 27 to 50 | 10 to 67 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2 |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 99 | 84 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 68% | 52% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 84% | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 81% | 68% | 52% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 69% | 49% | 31% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 134 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 67% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 38 to 107 | 52% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 103 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 33 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 29 to 95 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 60 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 58 | 45 to 71 | 26 to 90 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 87 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 54 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 53 | 41 to 66 | 22 to 85 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 52 | 40 to 65 | 21 to 84 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 17 to 77 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 15 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 39 | 28 to 51 | 11 to 68 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 32 |