AFL · GRAND FINAL · MCG
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Sat 26 Sep 2026, 2:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
FRE 40%60% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.5 | 90% | 69% | 44% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 88% | 69% | 38% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 88% | 69% | 38% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 69% | 38% | 19% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 69% | 38% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 50% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 50% | 18% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 36% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 31% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.4 | 90% | 69% | 43% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 78% | 52% | 31% | 17% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 75% | 52% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 73% | 44% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 78% | 50% | 25% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 67% | 34% | 16% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 58% | 25% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 59% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |