AFL · GRAND FINAL · MCG
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Sat 26 Sep 2026, 2:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
FRE 40%60% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 7
HIT Actual margin 7 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.5 to 9.1 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 81% | 64% | 51% | 37% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 77% | 61% | 43% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.5 to 6.8 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 54% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.2 to 6.0 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Frederick | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 41% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Clark | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 35% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 37% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Ryan | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Judd McVee | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FPL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.6 to 11.3 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 64% | 56% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 61% | 41% | 27% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 63% | 44% | 30% | 15% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 61% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.2 to 6.0 | 57% | 37% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 24% | 15% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ty Gallop | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 18% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 24% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |