AFL · ROUND 3 · MCG
Carlton v Melbourne
Sun 29 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 2
CAR to win, 53% chance
CAR 53%47% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 28.7 / 31.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 102 / 105 |
| George Hewett | INT | 27.2 / 18.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 5.3 / 4.0 | 102 / 77 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 26.3 / 21.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 5.3 / 8.0 | 96 / 89 |
| Oliver Hollands | HBFL | 21.7 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 9.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 85 / 97 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 19.9 / 25.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 69 / 85 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 19.5 / 17.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 5.0 | 79 / 76 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 19.1 / 25.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 78 / 78 |
| Zac Williams | HFFR | 18.4 / 19.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 74 / 61 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 18.3 / - | 0.5 / - | 5.2 / - | 2.6 / - | 75 / - |
| Campbell Chesser | WR | 16.4 / 14.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 5.0 | 68 / 66 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 15.7 / 13.0 | 0.5 / 3.0 | 5.1 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 67 / 69 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.1 / 16.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 6.4 / 9.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 85 / 85 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 14.1 / 8.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 82 / 39 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 14.0 / 17.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 7.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 63 / 85 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.9 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.9 / 6.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 65 / 68 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 12.9 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 54 / 54 |
| Lewis Young | BPL | 12.9 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 6.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 57 / 61 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 12.5 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 54 / 58 |
| Jordan Boyd | INT | 12.2 / - | 0.1 / - | 3.7 / - | 1.8 / - | 52 / - |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.1 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 60 / 41 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 12.1 / 15.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 62 / 63 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 12.0 / 8.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 55 / 37 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 11.8 / 7.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 60 / 33 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 11.8 / 15.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 53 / 58 |
| Lachie Fogarty | INT | 10.7 / - | 0.7 / - | 2.5 / - | 3.0 / - | 53 / - |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 8.8 / 3.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 58 / 11 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 24.0 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 92 / 68 |
| Jack Steele | R | 21.0 / 23.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 6.5 / 16.0 | 86 / 135 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.8 / 23.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 110 / 141 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.2 / - | 0.2 / - | 4.8 / - | 2.9 / - | 81 / - |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 19.2 / 33.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 7.0 | 4.0 / 4.0 | 80 / 134 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 17.3 / 24.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 5.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 68 / 96 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 16.3 / 13.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 63 / 78 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 16.1 / 16.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 63 / 71 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.5 / 11.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 60 / 44 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 14.3 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 2.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 9.0 | 63 / 96 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 14.3 / 18.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.0 / 5.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 60 / 64 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 13.4 / 29.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 7.0 | 56 / 114 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.2 / 9.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 4.7 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 65 / 74 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 12.8 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 5.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 51 / 67 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 11.9 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 5.0 | 47 / 57 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 11.7 / 21.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 10.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 49 / 98 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 11.4 / - | 0.6 / - | 2.3 / - | 2.2 / - | 50 / - |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 11.4 / 13.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 7.0 | 52 / 68 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 11.4 / 15.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 6.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 49 / 59 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 11.4 / 9.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 53 / 43 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 11.4 / 6.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 53 / 24 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 11.0 / 18.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 54 / 66 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 10.9 / 5.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 58 / 39 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 9.7 / 11.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 55 / 54 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 8.8 / 8.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 50 / 30 |
| Max Heath | INT | 8.2 / - | 1.0 / - | 3.5 / - | 2.1 / - | 54 / - |