AFL · ROUND 3 · MCG
Carlton v Melbourne
Sun 29 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 2
CAR to win, 53% chance
CAR 53%47% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 28.7 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 78% | 43% | 14% | 31.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 27.2 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 69% | 32% | 8% | 18.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 26.3 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 21.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | HBFL | 21.7 | - | - | 95% | 67% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 19.9 | - | - | 89% | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 19.5 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 19.1 | - | - | 86% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Zac Williams | HFFR | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 18.3 | - | - | 81% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Campbell Chesser | WR | 16.4 | - | - | 67% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 15.7 | - | - | 60% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.1 | - | - | 55% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 14.0 | - | - | 43% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Lewis Young | BPL | 12.9 | - | - | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 12.5 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | INT | 12.2 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.1 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | INT | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 8.8 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 24.0 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 20.0 |
| Jack Steele | R | 21.0 | - | - | 93% | 61% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.2 | - | - | 90% | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 19.2 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 33.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 17.3 | - | - | 74% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 14.3 | - | - | 47% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 29.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 11.4 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 8.8 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 8.2 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |