Carlton v Melbourne

Sun 29 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

CAR by 2

CAR to win, 53% chance

CAR 53%47% MEL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

MEL by 23

MISS Actual margin 23 · 25.2 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Carlton

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
George Hewett	INT	102	-	-	94%	85%	72%	54%	35%	77
Sam Walsh	R	102	-	-	93%	85%	71%	53%	35%	105
Patrick Cripps	C	96	-	-	89%	78%	62%	43%	26%	89
Harry McKay	FF	85	-	-	76%	59%	41%	24%	12%	85
Oliver Hollands	HBFL	85	-	-	76%	59%	41%	24%	12%	97
Marc Pittonet	RK	82	-	-	72%	54%	36%	20%	10%	39
Oliver Florent	HBFR	79	-	-	66%	48%	30%	16%	7%	76
Elijah Hollands	CHF	78	-	-	66%	47%	29%	16%	7%	78
Blake Acres	INT	75	-	-	59%	41%	24%	12%	5%	-
Zac Williams	HFFR	74	-	-	58%	40%	23%	11%	5%	61
Jagga Smith	RR	69	-	-	48%	30%	16%	7%	3%	85
Campbell Chesser	WR	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	66
Mitch McGovern	CHB	67	-	-	44%	27%	14%	6%	2%	69
Jacob Weitering	FB	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	68
Ben Ainsworth	INT	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	85
Will Hayward	HFFL	62	-	-	34%	19%	9%	4%	1%	63
Brodie Kemp	FPR	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	33
Francis Evans	INT	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	41
Hudson O'Keeffe	INT	58	-	-	29%	15%	7%	2%	1%	11
Lewis Young	BPL	57	-	-	27%	14%	6%	2%	1%	61
Talor Byrne	FPL	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	37
Harry Dean	BPR	54	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	54
Lachlan Cowan	INT	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	58
Lachie Fogarty	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	-
Matthew Carroll	WL	53	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	58
Jordan Boyd	INT	52	-	-	20%	9%	4%	1%	0%	-

Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Max Gawn	RK	110	-	-	97%	92%	82%	68%	50%	141
Christian Salem	HBFR	92	-	-	84%	71%	53%	34%	19%	68
Jack Steele	R	86	-	-	78%	62%	43%	26%	13%	135
Trent Rivers	INT	81	-	-	70%	52%	34%	18%	8%	-
Kysaiah Pickett	FPR	80	-	-	68%	50%	32%	17%	8%	134
Caleb Windsor	RR	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	96
Bayley Fritsch	FPL	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	74
Ed Langdon	INT	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	78
Harvey Langford	WR	63	-	-	36%	21%	10%	4%	1%	71
Kade Chandler	HFFL	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	96
Changkuoth Jiath	BPR	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	44
Tom McDonald	CHB	60	-	-	33%	18%	8%	3%	1%	64
Jacob van Rooyen	CHF	58	-	-	28%	15%	6%	2%	1%	39
Tom Sparrow	C	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	1%	114
Brody Mihocek	FF	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	54
Jai Culley	INT	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	66
Max Heath	INT	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	-
Latrelle Pickett	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	43
Paddy Cross	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	24
Harry Sharp	HFFR	52	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	68
Xavier Lindsay	WL	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	67
Bailey Laurie	INT	50	-	-	17%	8%	3%	1%	0%	-
Harrison Petty	BPL	50	-	-	17%	8%	3%	1%	0%	30
Jake Lever	FB	49	-	-	16%	7%	3%	1%	0%	98
Koltyn Tholstrup	INT	49	-	-	16%	7%	2%	1%	0%	59
Blake Howes	HBFL	47	-	-	14%	6%	2%	1%	0%	57