AFL · ROUND 3 · MCG
Carlton v Melbourne
Sun 29 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 2
CAR to win, 53% chance
CAR 53%47% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 2.6 | - | - | 92% | 73% | 48% | 26% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 38% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | HFFR | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 29% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.7 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 81% | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | R | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |