AFL · ROUND 3 · MCG
Carlton v Melbourne
Sun 29 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 2
CAR to win, 53% chance
CAR 53%47% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 25.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.9 | - | - | 91% | 82% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 6.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 77% | 62% | 46% | 32% | 9.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 2.0 |
| Lewis Young | BPL | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 6.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 9.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | - |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | CHF | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 7.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 6.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Jordan Boyd | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | - |
| Zac Williams | HFFR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 6.3 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 3.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 6.0 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 5.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 10.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 4.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | - |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | R | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 5.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | HFFL | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | FPR | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |