AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v GWS GIANTS
Fri 27 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 25.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 30.3 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 86% | 55% | 22% | 36.0 |
| Josh Daicos | INT | 26.6 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 33.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 22.4 | - | - | 96% | 72% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 10.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | FPR | 17.9 | - | - | 79% | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 17.8 | - | - | 78% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 17.6 | - | - | 76% | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 31.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Ned Long | R | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 15.9 | - | - | 63% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | CHB | 15.8 | - | - | 62% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | INT | 12.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Oscar Steene | INT | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Roan Steele | FPL | 12.0 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Daniel McStay | CHF | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 29.7 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 83% | 50% | 18% | 35.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 28.5 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 77% | 41% | 13% | 39.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 37.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 61% | 25% | 6% | 28.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 19.4 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPL | 19.1 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 17.3 | - | - | 74% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 17.2 | - | - | 74% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 15.9 | - | - | 63% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 15.4 | - | - | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 15.2 | - | - | 56% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFR | 15.2 | - | - | 55% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.5 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 11.1 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 10.4 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 7.9 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |