AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v GWS GIANTS
Fri 27 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 25.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 113 | - | - | 98% | 94% | 86% | 73% | 55% | 140 |
| Josh Daicos | INT | 98 | - | - | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 120 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 59 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 85 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 103 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 83 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 36 |
| Ned Long | R | 77 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 86 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 76 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 78 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 74 | - | - | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 78 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 110 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 82 |
| Jordan De Goey | FPR | 70 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 52 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 41 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 68 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 54 |
| Jamie Elliott | INT | 65 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 26 |
| Jeremy Howe | CHB | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 50 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 47 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 49 |
| Oscar Steene | INT | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 52 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 64 |
| Roan Steele | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 31 |
| Daniel McStay | CHF | 51 | - | - | 18% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 59 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 79 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 34 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 105 | - | - | 95% | 88% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 116 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 99 | - | - | 91% | 81% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 129 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 94 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 104 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 92 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 104 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 60 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 70 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPL | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 59 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 72 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 100 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 53 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 81 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 80 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 97 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 89 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 62 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 60 | - | - | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 82 |
| James Leake | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 32 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 50 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 59 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 22 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 35 |