AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Collingwood v GWS GIANTS
Fri 27 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 7
COL to win, 60% chance
COL 60%40% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 33
HIT Actual margin 33 · 25.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | R | 6.3 | - | - | 95% | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 10.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WL | 4.7 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 4.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 4.5 | - | - | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 4.1 | - | - | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 3.9 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 52% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | FPR | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | CHF | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar Steene | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Moore | FB | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | CHB | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 4.6 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.6 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 73% | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.4 | - | - | 67% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | HFFR | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 2.5 | - | - | 47% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | HBFL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| James Leake | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Hannaford | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Ash | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 1.6 | - | - | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Connor Idun | FB | 1.5 | - | - | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |