AFL · ROUND 3 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v North Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 4
NM to win, 56% chance
ESS 44%56% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 7.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.9 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 10.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.9 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 19.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 24.6 | - | - | 98% | 85% | 50% | 16% | 3% | 25.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.3 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 22.9 | - | - | 97% | 76% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 21.9 | - | - | 95% | 68% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 19.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 19.3 | - | - | 87% | 47% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.7 | - | - | 69% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 16.0 | - | - | 63% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 14.7 | - | - | 51% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Zach Reid | CHB | 14.6 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 13.4 | - | - | 37% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 13.2 | - | - | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 12.0 | - | - | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.0 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFR | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 32.1 | - | - | 100% | 99% | 92% | 67% | 33% | 33.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 27.8 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 73% | 36% | 10% | 31.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 24.4 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 48% | 15% | 2% | 23.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 23.2 | - | - | 97% | 77% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 33.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 21.0 | - | - | 93% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.4 | - | - | 87% | 48% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 23.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 19.3 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 18.9 | - | - | 84% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 18.0 | - | - | 79% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HFFR | 16.5 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 35.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Aidan Corr | INT | 14.9 | - | - | 52% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Luke McDonald | BPL | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Toby Pink | FB | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 8.4 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 8.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 7.5 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |